Now that I (with my dog Decarb) have finally published our guide to the most promising climate technologies and innovations, we’re going to start serializing it here, in bite-sized chunks.
First up… solar. It’s the climate technology I’m most excited about, because it’s moving the fastest.
The world’s adding solar capacity faster than any other energy source, because it’s fully commoditized. What does that mean exactly?
There are many large manufacturers competing viciously with each other to produce huge volumes of ever-higher-efficiency panels at increasingly lower costs (and miniscule margins). Most of them are in China, of course, but lets not worry about that right now, just like we’re not worried about all the chips being made in Taiwan. The Chinese have huge incentives to keep selling them to the world whatever happens geopolitically, because they’ve made the capital investments in the factories and need the revenue and jobs.
You can buy solar panels cheaply by the containerload, wherever you are, put them up and just watch them generate power immediately. This is a huge contrast to say wind (or hydro or nuclear or geothermal or fossil), which requires huge capital investments in giant structures, complicated logistics, and years long permitting and development processes.
Solar can be used in a zillion formats, form factors and use cases, just like fossil fuels. Whether you own a million-acre desert and want a massive gigawatt scale solar farm, or just have a balcony and want to hang few solar panels to replace a diesel generator, go for it!
Finally, batteries are commoditizing too and this is an additional force multiplier for solar (now it works at night too!). More to come on this.
For a really deep dive on solar, the best thing to listen to is David Roberts’ Nov 29th podcast with Jenny Chase. It’s a great conversation, she’s so knowledgable.
And now… the solar excerpt from my new climate tech guide (see the whole thing on Davemargulius.com):
Solar power
What’s exciting/promising:
– Already the cheapest power source on the planet.
– Can be deployed anywhere, from rooftop systems to massive solar farms.
– Expect further breakthroughs in efficiency and cost.
Overview:
Solar is now the world’s cheapest and fastest growing power source. And it’s continually improving: manufacturing costs keep falling, and solar cell efficiency keeps climbing, enabling more power to be produced in less space. Rooftop solar saves money by producing energy where it’s consumed, while utility solar benefits from larger scale but has to overcome issues of land availability, permitting and access to grid connections. Currently China leads the world in solar technology and manufacturing, and dominates the global solar supply chain with its massive scale advantages and ultra low pricing.
Open questions:
– How quickly can solar costs keep dropping?
– Can we remove permitting, land use and grid interconnection obstacles?
– Can we diversify the solar supply chain away from China?
Go deeper: PV Magazine; Jenny Chase; IEA
Key concepts and terminology:
Agrivoltaics Solar + agriculture; for example using panels to provide shade for cows 🐮, or growing berries 🍓 underneath.
Cell The basic unit of solar PV (photovoltaic) generation; uses a semiconductor material (usually silicon) to convert sunlight into electrical current.
Efficiency The 🎓 best solar panels today convert about 24% of the sun’s energy into electricity; those in the lab convert as much as 30% or more.
Ground mounted solar Solar arrays mounted directly on the ground; cheaper to install and easier to maintain than rooftop solar.
Module/panel An assembly of connected solar cells, containing layers of materials like glass, silicon, plastic, aluminum, copper, silver and lead, all sealed together.
Multi/hetero junction cells 😎 Stacks of different semiconductor materials layered together, each able to absorb a different part of the solar spectrum.
Perovskite cells Solar cells made from perovskites (compounds with a specific crystal structure).
Silicon cells Crystalline silicon is used in 95%+ of today’s solar photovoltaic cells; it provides the best combination of efficiency, low cost, and long lifetime.
Solar parking carports Steel structures enabling solar panels to be installed on top of 🅿️ parking spaces, an efficient use of existing space.
Solar supply chain Starts with raw silicon, which is made into polysilicon, then ingots, then wafers, cells, and finally modules.
Thermal solar Systems which convert sunlight into heat, such as rooftop solar hot water systems.
Thin-film cells Using thin layers of a semiconductor like cadmium telluride, deposited directly onto glass, plastic or metal, to enable lighter, more flexible solar modules.
Trackers Mechanical solar mounts which automatically pivot toward the sun as it moves, maximizing solar production.
Wafers Blocks of silicon (or some other semiconductor material) which are processed and coated to form the heart of a solar cell.
Read the rest of Dave and Decarb’s guide to the most promising climate technologies (free of course) on Davemargulius.com.